Several oil companies, including BP and Shell, have set ambitious goals to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to combat climate change, but a new report finds that it may be unlikely, if not impossible to hit those targets.
They may, however, be able to achieve 80 percent of their net-zero goals by 2050, according to a recent report from Accenture. The global consulting firm found that oil and gas companies must work collaboratively with customers in power generation, transportation, heavy industry and commercial buildings to reduce fossil fuel demand and emissions. Net-zero allows for some emissions that are offset through renewable sources.
“Net zero may not be a good articulation of aspiration," said David Rabley, the managing director of Accenture’s energy, strategy and consulting. "From our analysis, while we’re still going to see some emissions, society’s goal is to get as close to net zero as possible.”
Some industries, such as commercial aviation and cement, will likely continue to use fossil fuels because alternatives such as hydrogen or biofuels are not technologically advanced yet. Other industries will likely take longer to transition away from fossil fuels. For example, it would take decades to replace more than 2.2 billion gasoline fueled vehicles worldwide, Accenture said.
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Accenture estimates that global carbon dioxide emissions total 40 gigatons, with nearly two-thirds of that attributed to oil and gas. Under the most aggressive net-zero plans, the consulting firm estimates that the world could cut that to 10 gigatons of carbon dioxide emissions by 2050. This would require oil and gas companies to minimize emissions and maximize efficiencies from current operations, take action to replace oil and gas with cleaner alternatives and push research and development of new energy sources.
More than 800 companies have set net-zero targets worldwide, and there is increasing pressure on oil companies to shift from fossil fuel. Within the oil and gas industry, 20 percent of emissions occur within operations, while the remaining 80 percent occurs through their customers.
“There is this imperative for oil and gas companies to make a decisive shift,” Rabley said. “None of the archetypes (for future energy models) resemble today’s companies. This transition requires a radical shift.”
Ultimately, oil companies can help lead the transition, but net zero will take a concerted effort by many industries, Accenture said.
“To reach the ambition of net zero, you have to be pushing the theoretical maximum of technology, business models and societal changes,” said Muqsit Ashraf, Accenture’s senior managing director of global energy. “It won’t be accomplished by current group of players but wide group of players.”
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