Gov. Gavin Newsom said Tuesday that he may put mandatory water restrictions in place in as soon as six weeks from now as the state’s historic drought continues to worsen.

The declaration came as the governor and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan inspected recovery efforts at Big Basin Redwoods State Park in the Santa Cruz Mountains one year after a massive wildfire burned through the park’s ancient redwoods.

Asked if he was going to require cities to meet mandatory water conservation targets, as former Gov. Jerry Brown did statewide during the last drought from 2012 to 2016, Newsom noted that he already called for 15% voluntary conservation, but that could change soon.

“At the moment, we’re doing voluntary,” the governor said. “But if we enter into another year of drought — and as you know our water season starts Oct. 1 — we will have likely more to say by the end of September as we enter potentially the third year of this current drought.”

California is currently suffering through its worst drought in nearly 50 years. Mandatory water conservation targets would likely mean widespread limits on watering lawns, with fines for violators, along with water allotments for homes and businesses, as occurred during the last drought as a tactic to keep supplies from running out.

Overall, 88% of the state is in extreme drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor, a weekly report issued by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, NOAA and the University of Nebraska.

After the least rainfall in any two-year period since 1975-77, reservoirs in many places across Northern California have fallen to shockingly low levels.

The largest state-owned reservoir in California, Lake Oroville in Butte County, on Tuesday was just 23% full — the lowest since it was built in 1969. Last week, dam operators shut down the reservoir’s hydroelectric power plant because there is no longer enough water to spin its turbines.

Other large reservoirs around California are nearly as low. The largest, Lake Shasta, was 29% full on Tuesday. Folsom reservoir north of Sacramento was 23% full. San Luis east of Gilroy was 16% full.

Some communities, including Mendocino and Fort Bragg, are in danger of running out of water entirely.

On July 8, Newsom asked all Californians to reduce their water consumption by 15% voluntarily.

But some water experts say that isn’t enough, given the gravity of the situation.

“I was glad to see him pay more attention to the drought, but I’m sorry it wasn’t more than 15%, and I’m sorry it wasn’t mandatory,” said Peter Gleick, president emeritus of the Pacific Institute, a non-profit water research center based in Oakland.

“There has been a clear underestimate of the speed and intensity of this drought,” said Gleick, who has written 11 books about water policy and climate. “There should have been calls months ago for expanded conservation and efficiency. There should have been calls for more aggressive and mandatory restrictions. This is a very severe drought, and we don’t know when it is going to end. If we are lucky it will end with the next rainy season. If it doesn’t we are going to be sorry we didn’t save more water sooner.”

Brown issued a statewide order for communities to reduce water use 25% in 2015 during the state’s 2012-16 drought, after voluntary efforts proved insufficient. Each city was given a different target based on its per-capita water use with fines for failing to meet the targets and monthly updates on progress. The state achieved a 24.5% reduction.

Newsom noted that he already has declared a drought emergency in 50 of California’s 58 counties, which can make them eligible for state and federal assistance.

“We’re likely going to need to do that to the entire state,” he said.

Newsom recently toured Oroville to see its low levels. Asked whether he was planning to shift the state from voluntary to mandatory conservation targets, he said:

“We are monitoring conditions in real time, and as is the case so often with so many issues that we are facing — not the least of which is COVID — we’re open to facts. We’re not ideological about the nature of the challenge and the willingness to lean in and make subsequent recommendations and announcements.”

Currently, some communities where local supplies are running particularly short have imposed water restrictions. The Santa Clara Valley Water District, based in San Jose, on June 9 declared a drought emergency and asked the 2 million residents of Santa Clara County to cut their water use 15% below 2019 levels. But usage in June showed a 0% drop, meaning Santa Clara County residents used the same amount of water as they did two years ago.

Other large water agencies, including East Bay Municipal Utility District and San Francisco Public Utilities Commission, have no mandatory water restrictions.

Newsom is facing a recall election on Sept. 14. Some political observers say that after a year in which he asked Californians to sacrifice during the COVID-19 pandemic, he is likely hesitant to ask for more sacrifice before the election, which polls show is tight.

“In another time, a governor might call for mandatory restrictions,” said Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of political science at San Jose State University. “It seems reasonable from the standpoint of self preservation that he would be very cautious about causing any more disruption among the voters than there already is.”

Newsom spent an hour at the still-closed Big Basin, California’s oldest state park, where crews have cleared burned buildings and removed trees in danger of falling.

“We’re going to get through this,” he said, looking at the charred redwoods which already are sprouting green branches and shoots. “And we’re going to come out the other side more capable and more resilient.”

BOULDER CREEK, CALIFORNIA – August 17: Gov. Gavin Newsom, center, looks up as he tours Big Basin Redwoods State Park with EPA Administrator Michael Regan, left, on Aug. 17, 2021, in Boulder Creek, Calif. (Dai Sugano/Bay Area News Group)