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Gold ends July higher; we believe free cash flow generation, not earnings, is a better way to assess the value and investment appeal of a gold mining company.
Monthly gold market and economic insights from Imaru Casanova, Portfolio Manager, featuring her unique views on mining and gold’s portfolio benefits.
Gold steadies on mixed economic outlook
Economic data releases in July fueled expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (FED) is nearing the end of its hiking cycle, supporting gold prices which were up 2.4% during the month, and putting pressure on the U.S. dollar (down 1.03%, as measured by the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY1)). Gold climbed back above $1,950 per ounce on July 12, following the release of June U.S. Consumer Price Index2 figures showing a 3% year-on-year increase, compared to 4% in May. Gold advanced further, reaching a monthly high of $1,978.72 on July 18, as U.S. retail sales for June came in below expectations. The yellow metal held on to most of its gains as the markets digested another interest rate hike by the Fed on July 26, and a 3% yearly increase in the June U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index3(the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge). Gold closed at $1,965.09 on July 31.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR)4 and MVIS Global Juniors Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR)5 outperformed gold, up 4.54% and 5.86% respectively, during the month. Q2 2023 financial and operating results for the gold sector have been mixed. Many of the producers had flagged a weaker first half of the year, and most of them have maintained their full year 2023 guidance. Thus, we expect an improvement in the second half of 2023. The market is very focused on companies meeting expectations, so any significant misses are likely to lead to poor share price performance.
Why forecasting earnings for gold miners is hard
While we agree that companies must meet their guided targets to gain market confidence in their ability to deliver consistent results, we also understand the unique challenges of the mining industry. As long-term investors looking for value creation, we are less obsessed with quarterly earnings and much more focused on companies’ outlook for free cash flow generation over the next 10 to 20 years. From decades of experience covering this sector, including sell-side experience which entailed issuing earnings-per-share (EPS) estimates every quarter for all companies under coverage, we can comfortably say it is nearly impossible to forecast a precious metals company’s earnings for any given quarter. The challenges come from different sources, most relevantly:
- The fact that these companies are issuing forecasts based on only estimates of the properties of the gold deposits they are mining. Clearly, we expect that these estimates are a good representation of the gold deposit over the life of the mine. Quarter-over-quarter, it is also very reasonable to expect variations from those estimates that could certainly impact earnings, while generally having no material impact in the net asset value of the mine or the company.
- Companies issue full-year guidance which tries to account for quarter-to-quarter fluctuations, but analysts must issue quarterly guidance that cannot predict these variations. It is these quarterly estimates that the markets gauge companies against.
- Earnings are based on complex accounting and reporting standards, including one-off and non-cash items, that make it very difficult to reconcile reported earnings to estimates.
- Other factors, including the variations in the realized price of gold and other produced metals. While analysts may be able to account for spot price fluctuations during the quarter, predicting the timing of sales and the impact of provisionally priced sales (which later need to be adjusted) is nearly impossible.
Focusing on the longer-term
In our view, focusing on free cash flow generation not just over the current quarter but over the long term, is a much better way to assess the value and investment appeal of a gold mining company. In fact, our internal models generate an in-house metric which we created to capture our approach. We refer to it as “free cash flow per ounce”, and it is the total, undiscounted free cash flow the company generates over its operating horizon, divided by all the gold (or gold equivalent) ounces we estimate it will mine during that period. It is a simple, yet transparent measure that allows us to assess the relative valuations of the companies in our universe.
Enterprise Value/oz vs. Free-Cash-Flow/oz
Source: VanEck. For illustrative purposes only. Enterprise value (EV) per ounce (EV/oz) is the ratio of a company's enterprise value vs the total amount of mineral resources in the ground. FCF = Free-Cash-Flow.
During earning season, EPS headlines move stock prices. We track and continuously assess a company’s record of delivering against expectations/guidance. And we do make changes to our portfolio based on this track record and its potential impact on future share price performance. However, we do not rush to buy or sell a stock because it beat or missed earnings until we assess the impact of these results in our free cash flow forecast of the company over the long term. We believe gold equity investors should demand that companies deliver against their operational targets, while focusing less on quarterly earnings and more on the outlook for good old free cash over the next decade or two. It is also helpful to remember that any gold not mined (or sold) this quarter is not lost, it will still be there the next quarter or year, ready to meet the world’s historical need for the shiny metal, potentially at even higher prices.
Important Disclosures
All company, sector, and sub-industry weightings as of July 31, 2023 unless otherwise noted.
Please note that VanEck may offer investments products that invest in the asset class(es) or industries included in this communication.
This is not an offer to buy or sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy or sell any of the securities mentioned herein. The information presented does not involve the rendering of personalized investment, financial, legal, or tax advice. Certain statements contained herein may constitute projections, forecasts and other forward looking statements, which do not reflect actual results.
Nothing in this content should be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell shares of any investment in any jurisdiction where the offer or solicitation would be unlawful under the securities laws of such jurisdiction, nor is it intended as investment, tax, financial, or legal advice. Investors should seek such professional advice for their particular situation and jurisdiction.
1The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the U.S. dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies, often referred to as a basket of U.S. trade partners' currencies.
2The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services.
3U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) is a measure of the prices that people living in the United States, or those buying on their behalf, pay for goods and services.
4NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDMNTR) is a modified market capitalization-weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold.
5MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (MVGDXJTR) is a rules-based, modified market capitalization-weighted, float-adjusted index comprised of a global universe of publicly traded small- and medium-capitalization companies that generate at least 50% of their revenues from gold and/or silver mining, hold real property that has the potential to produce at least 50% of the company’s revenue from gold or silver mining when developed, or primarily invest in gold or silver.
Any indices listed are unmanaged indices and include the reinvestment of all dividends, but do not reflect the payment of transaction costs, advisory fees or expenses that are associated with an investment in a Fund. Certain indices may take into account withholding taxes. An index’s performance is not illustrative of a Fund’s performance. Indices are not securities in which investments can be made.
Investments in commodities can be very volatile and direct investment in these markets can be very risky, especially for inexperienced investors.
NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a service mark of ICE Data Indices, LLC or its affiliates (“ICE Data”) and has been licensed for use by Van Eck Associates Corporation (“VanEck”). VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by ICE Data. ICE Data makes no representations or warranties regarding VanEck products or the ability of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to track general stock market performance.
ICE DATA MAKES NO EXPRESS OR IMPLIED WARRANTIES, AND HEREBY EXPRESSLY DISCLAIMS ALL WARRANTIES OF MERCHANTABILITY OR FITNESS FOR A PARTICULAR PURPOSE WITH RESPECT TO THE NYSE ARCA GOLD MINERS INDEX OR ANY DATA INCLUDED THEREIN. IN NO EVENT SHALL ICE DATA HAVE ANY LIABILITY FOR ANY SPECIAL, PUNITIVE, INDIRECT, OR CONSEQUENTIAL DAMAGES (INCLUDING LOST PROFITS), EVEN IF NOTIFIED OF THE POSSIBILITY OF SUCH DAMAGES.
MVIS Global Junior Gold Miners Index (the “Index”) is the exclusive property of MarketVector Indexes GmbH (a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation), which has contracted with Solactive AG to maintain and calculate the Index. Solactive AG uses its best efforts to ensure that the Index is calculated correctly. Irrespective of its obligations towards MarketVector Indexes GmbH, Solactive AG has no obligation to point out errors in the Index to third parties. VanEck products are not sponsored, endorsed, sold or promoted by MarketVector Indexes GmbH and MarketVector Indexes GmbH makes no representation regarding the advisability of investing in VanEck products.
The Gold Strategy is subject to the risks associated with concentrating its assets in the gold industry, which can be significantly affected by international economic, monetary and political developments. The strategy’s overall portfolio may decline in value due to developments specific to the gold industry. The strategy investments in foreign securities involve risks related to adverse political and economic developments unique to a country or a region, currency fluctuations or controls, and the possibility of arbitrary action by foreign governments, or political, economic or social instability. The strategy is subject to risks associated with investments in Canadian issuers, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives, commodities and commodity-linked derivatives tax, gold-mining industry, derivatives, emerging market securities, foreign currency transactions, foreign securities, other investment companies, management, market, non-diversification, operational, regulatory, small- and medium-capitalization companies and subsidiary risks.
Please note that the information herein represents the opinion of the author, but not necessarily those of VanEck, and this opinion may change at any time and from time to time. Non-VanEck proprietary information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not guaranteed. Not intended to be a forecast of future events, a guarantee of future results or investment advice. Historical performance is not indicative of future results. Current data may differ from data quoted. Any graphs shown herein are for illustrative purposes only. No part of this material may be reproduced in any form, or referred to in any other publication, without express written permission of VanEck.
Diversification does not assure a profit or protect against loss.
All investing is subject to risk, including the possible loss of the money you invest. As with any investment strategy, there is no guarantee that investment objectives will be met and investors may lose money. Diversification does not ensure a profit or protect against a loss in a declining market. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Van Eck Securities Corporation, Distributor, a wholly owned subsidiary of Van Eck Associates Corporation.
Editor's Note: The summary bullets for this article were chosen by Seeking Alpha editors.
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August 16, 2023 at 02:30PM
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Focus On Gold Miners' Cash Flow - Not Earnings - Seeking Alpha
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